Millennium Global Macro and Currency Outlook: Highlights Q3 2018

July 13, 2018

 

This document contains the views and opinions of our Global Economic Research and Strategy Team (Claire Dissaux, Mattia Taboga and Meena Bassily) as of 4 July and does not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Millennium or any of its Portfolio Managers.

 

We are pleased to share the Q3 2018 Macro and Currency Outlook Highlights document, which examines several themes including:

  • We see support for the USD coming from recent economic momentum and monetary policy dynamics, however a risk to the view remains an escalation in trade tensions.
  • EUR faces downside risks, resulting from internal political challenges, growth constraints and dovish guidance from the ECB.
  • UK’s growth underperformance and continued Brexit uncertainties are likely to outweigh rate support for the GBP.
  • We see USDJPY moving higher driven by rate differentials but in the tail risk of a full-blow global trade war, it’s massive undervaluation increases the value of JPY as a hedge.
  • NOK and CZK look attractive in the view of solid domestic growth and monetary policy outlook in comparison to the ECB.
  • CAD looks cheap vs. USD and likely to benefit from under-priced BoC tightening, whereas AUD contrastingly looks expensive and vulnerable to trade policy risks.
  • EM currencies remain broadly vulnerable to tighter global liquidity, strengthening USD and on-going trade uncertainties.

Please click here to view the highlights document. If you require the full Millennium Global Macro and Currency Outlook Q3 2018 which explores a wider range of markets and views please email info@millenniumglobal.com.

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